AI Hasn't Yet Hit Recent Graduates' Unemployment

Economists Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu found in CESifo Working Paper No. 12994, using Current Population Survey microdata for June–August 2026, that unemployment among 22–25-year-old bachelor's degree graduates was 7.3% — within the normal range of 6.3–7.8% and with no statistically significant differences from older groups or occupations with varying AI exposure.

Compiled by Sergey KostenchukPublished 2026-09-26Updated 2026-09-26

2026-09-26 Business

💼 AI Hasn't Yet Hit Recent Graduates' Unemployment

Economists Fairlie and Wu, using U.S. Census Bureau data (CPS) for June–August 2026, estimated unemployment among 22–25-year-old bachelor's degree graduates at 7.3%, within the normal range of 6.3–7.8% for previous years.

🌍 CESifo Working Paper No. 12994 contradicts Stanford's findings based on ADP data, where junior hiring lagged: ADP measures job postings, while the census measures actual demand. This is a preliminary null result for one season based on a preprint.

👤 For students and IT juniors: the panic about 'graduates without a future' is not yet supported by statistics. The only warning sign is higher unemployment in occupations with remote work; 2027+ graduates may be more affected.

Source 1: https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/09/ai-was-supposed-to-hit-new-grads-hard-so-far-unemployment-data-says-otherwise/ Source 2: https://www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publications/2026/working-paper/early-impacts-ai-employment-among-recent-college-graduates

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