Anthropic modeled what AI could do to the US economy by 2030

Anthropic's economics team released an interactive model, Economic Scenario Explorer v1.0, which uses the US Department of Labor's O*NET task taxonomy to build three scenarios for AI's impact on US GDP, employment, and wages by 2030 — from +1.6% to +32.4%.

Compiled by Sergey KostenchukPublished 2026-09-09Updated 2026-09-18

2026-09-09 Business Anthropic

📊 Anthropic modeled what AI could do to the US economy by 2030

Anthropic's economics team released an interactive model, Economic Scenario Explorer v1.0, with three scenarios for 2030: US GDP is 1.6% higher (moderate), 8.3% higher (significant), or 32.4% higher (extreme — 15% annual growth, wages in intellectual professions fall by more than 10%).

🌍 The model translates AI capabilities, autonomy, and diffusion speed into GDP, employment, and wages by occupation through the O*NET task taxonomy. In fast scenarios, benefits go to capital — the labor share falls to 45.2%.

👤 You can set your own AI forecast and see what the US economy will look like by 2030, then compare it with the expectations of more than 10,000 surveyed Americans.

Source 1: https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios Source 2: https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/4zrzovbb/website/cf58f84d46a4a76bf5a5b039ac695fba6b80041c.pdf

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